BEIJING, May 15 (Xinhua) Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said on the 15th that some economic indicators fluctuated between March and April. In fact, if we relax a little, the short-term fluctuations between months have always been objective. From a vertical perspective, the main indicators have maintained a steady or even slightly accelerated growth rate. Horizontally, whether it is economic growth, employment, prices, including market vitality, economic operation is still in a reasonable range.
Data Map: People buy vegetables in a local vegetable market. China News Service reporter Li Bo photo
On the morning of 15th, the State Council held a press conference, and invited Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, to introduce the operation of the national economy in April 2019 and take questions from reporters.
A reporter asked that some indicators fluctuated greatly in April. What are the specific reasons? How to evaluate the economic performance in April?
Liu Aihua said that some indicators did fluctuate between March and April. In fact, if we relax a little, the short-term fluctuations between months have always been objective. Judging the economic situation depends not only on the fluctuation between adjacent two months, but also on the trend. Judging from the comprehensive change trend of the overall production, demand, employment, prices and enterprise production expectations in April, the overall economic operation continued to maintain a generally stable, steady and progressive development trend.
Liu Aihua pointed out that the characteristics of economic operation in April can be summarized from four aspects:
First, the overall production demand is stable. From the service industry, the service industry production index was 7.4% in April, which is the second highest monthly growth rate since September last year, that is, the second highest point. From January to April, the service industry production index was 7.4%, which was the same as that in the first quarter, indicating that the service industry maintained steady and rapid growth. From the industrial point of view, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% in April, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than that in January-February. The main reason for the decline in April compared with March was also mentioned at the press conference last month. In April, the value-added tax was lowered. Many enterprises actively adjusted their production and business activities in order to fully enjoy the preferential treatment of the value-added tax reduction. In March, they prepared goods in advance and accelerated production, so the data in April seems to fall back. On the whole, to judge the industrial situation, it is necessary to observe it for a longer period of time. A relatively simple method is to use cumulative growth rate. From January to April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than that of 5.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, which was the same as that of the previous year. From the trend point of view, industrial production is still maintaining a steady or even slightly accelerated momentum.
In terms of investment, investment in January-April increased by 6.1% year-on-year, which was the same as that in January-February this year and 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the previous year. From the consumption point of view, the overall consumption of goods and services is growing relatively fast. From January to April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8% year-on-year, and in April, it increased by 7.2%. The growth rate dropped from March, mainly because of the factors of holiday movement. If this factor is deducted, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in April is about 8.7%. In other words, it is the same as that in March. From the perspective of service consumption, during the Qingming holiday, the relevant departments also released data on various aspects of tourism. Judging from the number of tourists and total tourism revenue, the growth was above double digits, indicating that service consumption also continued to maintain rapid growth. From the perspective of import and export, import and export increased by 6.5% year-on-year in April, and continued to maintain rapid growth.
Second, the employment price situation is stable. In April, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in March, which was the result of the comprehensive efforts of the employment priority policy. From the perspective of the employed population, the unemployment rate of the employed population aged 25-59 was only 4.7% in April, which was 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month and dropped for two consecutive months. From January to April, 4.59 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, achieving 42% of the annual target. The unemployment rate dropped in April, and another reason was that it entered the peak employment season. From the local employment of migrant workers and the employment of local agricultural registered population we monitored, the unemployment rate dropped sharply, indicating that the overall market demand for employment is relatively good. From the price point of view, in April, the consumer price rose by 2.5% year-on-year, which is a moderate increase. If the core CPI of food and energy prices is deducted, it rose by 1.7% in April, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the overall price still belongs to a relatively moderate upward trend.
Third, the economic structure continued to be optimized. Mainly manifested in four aspects: First, the high-end manufacturing industry has accelerated growth. In April, the high-tech manufacturing industry grew by 11.2%, which was 5.8 percentage points faster than the above-scale industries and 1.2 percentage points faster than the previous month. Second, the modern service industry is growing well. In the first quarter, the operating income of high-tech service industries above designated size increased by 13.6% year-on-year, 2 percentage points faster than that of service industries above designated size. Third, investment in high-tech industries has grown rapidly. From January to April, investment in high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 11.4%, and investment in high-tech service industry increased by 15.5%. It can be said that these two speeds are obviously faster than the growth rate of all investment. Fourth, the trade structure continued to be optimized. From January to April, the import and export of general trade accounted for 59.8% of the total import and export, an increase of 1.3 points over the same period of last year. From the perspective of manufacturing industry, service industry, investment and trade, it should be said that the overall structure continues to be optimized and upgraded.
Fourth, market confidence continued to improve. Since the beginning of this year, the China Municipal Government has implemented a larger-scale tax reduction and fee reduction policy, and the annual tax reduction and fee reduction will reach about 2 trillion yuan. Under the influence of these policies, the market is expected to continue to improve. The purchasing managers’ index of manufacturing industry has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the expected index of production and business activities has also been in the relatively high boom range of more than 56% for three consecutive months; The business activity index of non-manufacturing industry has maintained a relatively high degree of prosperity, which has been above 54% for four consecutive months, and the expected index of business activity is higher, which has remained above 60% continuously.
Vertically, the main indicators have maintained a steady or even slightly accelerated growth rate. Horizontally, whether it is economic growth or employment, prices, including market vitality, it should be said that economic operation is still in a reasonable range.
Liu Aihua said that we should also see that the external environment is still severe and complicated, and instability and uncertainty have increased. Domestically, structural contradictions are still outstanding, so there is still downward pressure on the whole. In the next stage, we should pay close attention to the implementation of major policies in accordance with the deployment requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference and the government work report to ensure sustained, stable and healthy economic development.